The Media Says Rents Are at Record Highs. My Data Says Something Different.

You have probably seen the headlines this week. The latest Domain Rent Report has Sydney's median house rent at a record $850 a week, up $50 over the June quarter, with units hitting $780 after their fastest quarterly rise in three years.

Meanwhile, here is what my screen shows me every morning: there are around 100 more rental properties on the market across the Sutherland Shire right now than we would normally see.

Both things are true at the same time. And if you are a landlord with a property coming up vacant, the second one is far more important to you than the first.

Why the headline number can mislead you

That $850 is a median across all of Sydney. It blends the eastern suburbs, the inner west, the outer fringe and everywhere in between into one number. It tells you the direction of the broader market, and that direction is genuinely strong over the past year.

What it can't tell you is what's happening in your suburb this month. It can't see that stock levels in the Shire have lifted, that it's winter and fewer tenants are out looking, or that three properties very similar to yours are already listed within a few streets.

Pricing your rental off a citywide headline is like setting your sale price off the national median. Nobody would do that. Yet every winter I meet landlords who have done exactly that with their rental, usually on the advice of an agent who quoted the biggest number to win the management.

What the extra stock actually means

More listings means tenants have choice, and tenants with choice compare hard. The properties leasing quickly right now are the ones priced to the local evidence and presented properly. The ones priced to high are sitting through open after open.

The maths on that is brutal. A property that should rent at $850 a week, listed $20 higher and sitting vacant three extra weeks as a result, loses $2,550 to chase an extra $1,040 over the year. And because NSW rent increases are now capped at once every 12 months, there's no quick correction later. The price you set is the price you live with.

Don't listen to the media. Call your agent.

I will be upfront that this sounds biased coming from an agent. But the point isn't "trust agents." The point is trust local evidence over headlines, and a good local agent is where that evidence lives.

When your property is coming up vacant, your agent should be able to show you, not tell you:

The comparable properties currently listed near yours, and what they are asking. How long similar properties are taking to lease right now. Real enquiry and inspection numbers, not vibes. And a straight recommendation on price, even when it's a smaller number than the one in the paper.

If your current agent's pricing advice starts and ends with "the market's hot," you're not getting advice, you're getting a headline read back to you.

The bottom line

The long term picture for Shire landlords is still strong. Vacancy across Sydney remains tight and there's no wave of new supply on the way. But this winter, with more local stock than usual, the landlords doing best are the ones pricing off their street, not off the news.

If your investment property is coming up vacant in the next couple of months, call me for a second opinion. I'll show you what's actually listed around you and where your property should sit. Numbers, not headlines.

Melinda Barnes is the Director of Signature Property Agents in Lilli Pilli, managing rental properties across the Sutherland Shire since 2005.